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Foundations of Probability

  • What is Probability?
  • Theoretical vs Empirical Probability
  • Three Views of Probability
  • Sample Space and Events
  • Axioms of Probability
  • Independence and Expectation
  • Variance and Standard Deviation
  • Covariance and Correlation
  • Key Inequalities

Set Theory & Combinatorics

  • Set Operations in Probability
  • Counting Methods
  • Advanced Counting

Conditional & Bayesian Probability

  • Conditional Probability
  • Bayes' Theorem
  • Law of Total Probability

Random Variables & Distributions

  • What is a Random Variable?
  • Discrete vs Continuous
  • PDFs and CDFs
  • Expectation, Variance, and Moments

Discrete Distributions

  • Bernoulli and Binomial
  • Poisson and Geometric
  • Negative Binomial and Hypergeometric

Continuous Distributions

  • Uniform and Normal
  • Exponential, Gamma, Beta
  • Heavy-Tailed Distributions

Limit Theorems

  • Law of Large Numbers
  • Central Limit Theorem
  • Convergence in Probability vs Distribution

Frequentist Inference

  • Confidence Intervals
  • Hypothesis Testing
  • p-values and Statistical Decisions
  • Type I and Type II Errors
  • Power and Effect Size
  • Bootstrapping and Resampling

Advanced Probability Tools

  • Law of the Unconscious Statistician
  • Moment Generating Functions
  • Characteristic Functions
  • Markov Chains
  • Stationary Distributions

Bayesian Inference

  • Bayesian Philosophy
  • Prior, Likelihood, Posterior
  • Conjugate Priors
  • MCMC and Modern Computation

Regression Analysis

  • Ordinary Least Squares
  • Multiple Linear Regression
  • Regression Diagnostics
  • Regularization
  • Logistic and Generalized Linear Models

Multivariate Statistics

  • Joint, Marginal, and Conditional
  • Multivariate Normal
  • Covariance Matrices
  • Correlation vs Causation
  • Principal Component Analysis

Stochastic Processes

  • Random Walks
  • Poisson Processes
  • Brownian Motion
  • Itô's Lemma
  • Martingales
  • Geometric Brownian Motion

Simulation & Approximation

  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Variance Reduction
  • Bootstrapping for Finance
  • Quasi-Monte Carlo

Time Series

  • Stationarity and Autocorrelation
  • AR, MA, and ARIMA
  • GARCH and Volatility Clustering
  • Cointegration and Pairs Trading
  • Kalman Filters

Information Theory

  • Shannon Entropy
  • Kullback–Leibler Divergence
  • Mutual Information
  • Maximum Entropy

Linear Algebra

  • Vectors, Norms, and Inner Products
  • Matrix Operations
  • Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors
  • Singular Value Decomposition
  • Positive Definite Matrices
  • Numerical Stability

Calculus & Optimization

  • Multivariate Calculus
  • Lagrange Multipliers
  • Convex Optimization
  • Gradient Descent and Variants
  • Stochastic Calculus Primer

Machine Learning Fundamentals

  • Supervised vs Unsupervised
  • Bias–Variance Trade-off
  • Cross-Validation
  • Tree-Based Methods
  • Support Vector Machines
  • Clustering and Dimensionality Reduction
  • Classification Metrics

Deep Learning

  • Feedforward Networks
  • Backpropagation
  • Optimizers and Schedules
  • Regularization in DL
  • Architectures for Finance
  • Loss Functions

Options Pricing

  • Payoffs and Put–Call Parity
  • Risk-Neutral Valuation
  • Binomial Trees
  • Black–Scholes
  • The Greeks
  • Volatility Smile and Surface
  • Exotic Options

Portfolio Theory

  • Mean–Variance Optimization
  • CAPM and Factor Models
  • Sharpe, Sortino, and Information Ratio
  • Black–Litterman
  • Risk Parity

Trading & Risk Applications

  • Value-at-Risk
  • Expected Shortfall
  • Backtesting
  • Market Making Basics
  • Execution and Market Microstructure
  • Statistical Arbitrage
Study Guide/Calculus & Optimization
Section 18 · Lesson 18.83

Stochastic Calculus Primer

Differentiating in the presence of Brownian noise.

Brownian motion has paths that are continuous but not differentiable. To do calculus on processes driven by Brownian motion, you need stochastic calculus.

The basic building block is the Itô integral ∫0Tσ(s) dW(s)\int_0^T \sigma(s)\, dW(s)∫0T​σ(s)dW(s), which extends the Riemann integral to stochastic integrands. Its key property: E[∫0Tσ(s) dW(s)]=0E[\int_0^T \sigma(s)\, dW(s)] = 0E[∫0T​σ(s)dW(s)]=0 — the integral is a martingale.

Itô's Lemma is the chain rule. For XtX_tXt​ with dXt=μ dt+σ dWtdX_t = \mu\, dt + \sigma\, dW_tdXt​=μdt+σdWt​:

df(Xt)=f′(Xt) dXt+12σ2f′′(Xt) dtdf(X_t) = f'(X_t)\, dX_t + \frac{1}{2}\sigma^2 f''(X_t)\, dtdf(Xt​)=f′(Xt​)dXt​+21​σ2f′′(Xt​)dt

The extra term 12σ2f′′\frac{1}{2}\sigma^2 f''21​σ2f′′ captures the contribution from squared Brownian increments, which scale like dtdtdt, not (dt)2(dt)^2(dt)2.

Stochastic calculus is the language of continuous-time finance: SDEs for asset prices, derivative pricing PDEs (Black-Scholes), term-structure models, and risk-neutral measure changes (Girsanov's theorem) all live here.

Why does Itô's Lemma include an extra second-derivative term that ordinary calculus doesn't?

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