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Foundations of Probability

  • What is Probability?
  • Theoretical vs Empirical Probability
  • Three Views of Probability
  • Sample Space and Events
  • Axioms of Probability
  • Independence and Expectation
  • Variance and Standard Deviation
  • Covariance and Correlation
  • Key Inequalities

Set Theory & Combinatorics

  • Set Operations in Probability
  • Counting Methods
  • Advanced Counting

Conditional & Bayesian Probability

  • Conditional Probability
  • Bayes' Theorem
  • Law of Total Probability

Random Variables & Distributions

  • What is a Random Variable?
  • Discrete vs Continuous
  • PDFs and CDFs
  • Expectation, Variance, and Moments

Discrete Distributions

  • Bernoulli and Binomial
  • Poisson and Geometric
  • Negative Binomial and Hypergeometric

Continuous Distributions

  • Uniform and Normal
  • Exponential, Gamma, Beta
  • Heavy-Tailed Distributions

Limit Theorems

  • Law of Large Numbers
  • Central Limit Theorem
  • Convergence in Probability vs Distribution

Frequentist Inference

  • Confidence Intervals
  • Hypothesis Testing
  • p-values and Statistical Decisions
  • Type I and Type II Errors
  • Power and Effect Size
  • Bootstrapping and Resampling

Advanced Probability Tools

  • Law of the Unconscious Statistician
  • Moment Generating Functions
  • Characteristic Functions
  • Markov Chains
  • Stationary Distributions

Bayesian Inference

  • Bayesian Philosophy
  • Prior, Likelihood, Posterior
  • Conjugate Priors
  • MCMC and Modern Computation

Regression Analysis

  • Ordinary Least Squares
  • Multiple Linear Regression
  • Regression Diagnostics
  • Regularization
  • Logistic and Generalized Linear Models

Multivariate Statistics

  • Joint, Marginal, and Conditional
  • Multivariate Normal
  • Covariance Matrices
  • Correlation vs Causation
  • Principal Component Analysis

Stochastic Processes

  • Random Walks
  • Poisson Processes
  • Brownian Motion
  • Itô's Lemma
  • Martingales
  • Geometric Brownian Motion

Simulation & Approximation

  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Variance Reduction
  • Bootstrapping for Finance
  • Quasi-Monte Carlo

Time Series

  • Stationarity and Autocorrelation
  • AR, MA, and ARIMA
  • GARCH and Volatility Clustering
  • Cointegration and Pairs Trading
  • Kalman Filters

Information Theory

  • Shannon Entropy
  • Kullback–Leibler Divergence
  • Mutual Information
  • Maximum Entropy

Linear Algebra

  • Vectors, Norms, and Inner Products
  • Matrix Operations
  • Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors
  • Singular Value Decomposition
  • Positive Definite Matrices
  • Numerical Stability

Calculus & Optimization

  • Multivariate Calculus
  • Lagrange Multipliers
  • Convex Optimization
  • Gradient Descent and Variants
  • Stochastic Calculus Primer

Machine Learning Fundamentals

  • Supervised vs Unsupervised
  • Bias–Variance Trade-off
  • Cross-Validation
  • Tree-Based Methods
  • Support Vector Machines
  • Clustering and Dimensionality Reduction
  • Classification Metrics

Deep Learning

  • Feedforward Networks
  • Backpropagation
  • Optimizers and Schedules
  • Regularization in DL
  • Architectures for Finance
  • Loss Functions

Options Pricing

  • Payoffs and Put–Call Parity
  • Risk-Neutral Valuation
  • Binomial Trees
  • Black–Scholes
  • The Greeks
  • Volatility Smile and Surface
  • Exotic Options

Portfolio Theory

  • Mean–Variance Optimization
  • CAPM and Factor Models
  • Sharpe, Sortino, and Information Ratio
  • Black–Litterman
  • Risk Parity

Trading & Risk Applications

  • Value-at-Risk
  • Expected Shortfall
  • Backtesting
  • Market Making Basics
  • Execution and Market Microstructure
  • Statistical Arbitrage
Study Guide/Multivariate Statistics
Section 12 · Lesson 12.51

Covariance Matrices

Encoding variance and pairwise relationships in one object.

For a vector of random variables X=(X1,…,Xk)X = (X_1, \dots, X_k)X=(X1​,…,Xk​), the covariance matrix Σ\SigmaΣ is

Σij=Cov(Xi,Xj)\Sigma_{ij} = \mathrm{Cov}(X_i, X_j)Σij​=Cov(Xi​,Xj​)

The diagonal holds the variances Var(Xi)\mathrm{Var}(X_i)Var(Xi​); the off-diagonal entries encode pairwise relationships.

Three properties matter:

  • Σ\SigmaΣ is symmetric: Σij=Σji\Sigma_{ij} = \Sigma_{ji}Σij​=Σji​.
  • Σ\SigmaΣ is positive semi-definite: a⊤Σa≥0a^\top \Sigma a \ge 0a⊤Σa≥0 for any vector aaa. This says portfolio variance can't be negative.
  • For a linear combination Y=a⊤XY = a^\top XY=a⊤X, Var(Y)=a⊤Σa\mathrm{Var}(Y) = a^\top \Sigma aVar(Y)=a⊤Σa.

Portfolio variance is the canonical application: with weights www and asset returns X∼(μ,Σ)X \sim (\mu, \Sigma)X∼(μ,Σ),

Var(w⊤X)=w⊤Σw\mathrm{Var}(w^\top X) = w^\top \Sigma wVar(w⊤X)=w⊤Σw

Negative off-diagonal entries help — that's diversification. Positive off-diagonals hurt because correlated assets don't cancel each other's swings.

Two assets have variances σ12=0.04\sigma_1^2 = 0.04σ12​=0.04 and σ22=0.09\sigma_2^2 = 0.09σ22​=0.09 and correlation ρ=0.5\rho = 0.5ρ=0.5. What is the variance of an equally weighted portfolio?

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Multivariate Normal
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Correlation vs Causation