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Foundations of Probability

  • What is Probability?
  • Theoretical vs Empirical Probability
  • Three Views of Probability
  • Sample Space and Events
  • Axioms of Probability
  • Independence and Expectation
  • Variance and Standard Deviation
  • Covariance and Correlation
  • Key Inequalities

Set Theory & Combinatorics

  • Set Operations in Probability
  • Counting Methods
  • Advanced Counting

Conditional & Bayesian Probability

  • Conditional Probability
  • Bayes' Theorem
  • Law of Total Probability

Random Variables & Distributions

  • What is a Random Variable?
  • Discrete vs Continuous
  • PDFs and CDFs
  • Expectation, Variance, and Moments

Discrete Distributions

  • Bernoulli and Binomial
  • Poisson and Geometric
  • Negative Binomial and Hypergeometric

Continuous Distributions

  • Uniform and Normal
  • Exponential, Gamma, Beta
  • Heavy-Tailed Distributions

Limit Theorems

  • Law of Large Numbers
  • Central Limit Theorem
  • Convergence in Probability vs Distribution

Frequentist Inference

  • Confidence Intervals
  • Hypothesis Testing
  • p-values and Statistical Decisions
  • Type I and Type II Errors
  • Power and Effect Size
  • Bootstrapping and Resampling

Advanced Probability Tools

  • Law of the Unconscious Statistician
  • Moment Generating Functions
  • Characteristic Functions
  • Markov Chains
  • Stationary Distributions

Bayesian Inference

  • Bayesian Philosophy
  • Prior, Likelihood, Posterior
  • Conjugate Priors
  • MCMC and Modern Computation

Regression Analysis

  • Ordinary Least Squares
  • Multiple Linear Regression
  • Regression Diagnostics
  • Regularization
  • Logistic and Generalized Linear Models

Multivariate Statistics

  • Joint, Marginal, and Conditional
  • Multivariate Normal
  • Covariance Matrices
  • Correlation vs Causation
  • Principal Component Analysis

Stochastic Processes

  • Random Walks
  • Poisson Processes
  • Brownian Motion
  • Itô's Lemma
  • Martingales
  • Geometric Brownian Motion

Simulation & Approximation

  • Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Variance Reduction
  • Bootstrapping for Finance
  • Quasi-Monte Carlo

Time Series

  • Stationarity and Autocorrelation
  • AR, MA, and ARIMA
  • GARCH and Volatility Clustering
  • Cointegration and Pairs Trading
  • Kalman Filters

Information Theory

  • Shannon Entropy
  • Kullback–Leibler Divergence
  • Mutual Information
  • Maximum Entropy

Linear Algebra

  • Vectors, Norms, and Inner Products
  • Matrix Operations
  • Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors
  • Singular Value Decomposition
  • Positive Definite Matrices
  • Numerical Stability

Calculus & Optimization

  • Multivariate Calculus
  • Lagrange Multipliers
  • Convex Optimization
  • Gradient Descent and Variants
  • Stochastic Calculus Primer

Machine Learning Fundamentals

  • Supervised vs Unsupervised
  • Bias–Variance Trade-off
  • Cross-Validation
  • Tree-Based Methods
  • Support Vector Machines
  • Clustering and Dimensionality Reduction
  • Classification Metrics

Deep Learning

  • Feedforward Networks
  • Backpropagation
  • Optimizers and Schedules
  • Regularization in DL
  • Architectures for Finance
  • Loss Functions

Options Pricing

  • Payoffs and Put–Call Parity
  • Risk-Neutral Valuation
  • Binomial Trees
  • Black–Scholes
  • The Greeks
  • Volatility Smile and Surface
  • Exotic Options

Portfolio Theory

  • Mean–Variance Optimization
  • CAPM and Factor Models
  • Sharpe, Sortino, and Information Ratio
  • Black–Litterman
  • Risk Parity

Trading & Risk Applications

  • Value-at-Risk
  • Expected Shortfall
  • Backtesting
  • Market Making Basics
  • Execution and Market Microstructure
  • Statistical Arbitrage
Study Guide/Simulation & Approximation
Section 14 · Lesson 14.62

Bootstrapping for Finance

Resampling returns to estimate distributions and intervals.

Standard bootstrap resamples observations with replacement to estimate sampling distributions. For financial returns it has to be applied carefully.

The naive i.i.d. bootstrap fails for time series because returns are serially correlated (especially in volatility). Two fixes:

  • Block bootstrap: resample blocks of consecutive observations to preserve short-range dependence. Block length is a tuning knob.
  • Stationary bootstrap: blocks have random geometric lengths, smoothing the discontinuities at block boundaries.

Common applications include confidence intervals for Sharpe ratios, drawdown statistics, and trading-strategy performance. The bootstrap is also useful for backtest sensitivity — randomly subsample your history and re-fit to see how stable the results are.

Limits: the bootstrap can't extrapolate beyond the observed data. If your sample contains no 555-sigma days, your bootstrap will never produce one. Combine bootstrap with parametric tail models for full risk analysis.

Why use a block bootstrap for financial returns rather than the standard i.i.d. bootstrap?

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